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Ag Market Commentary
BRUG - Fri Sep 13, 12:30PM CDT

Corn futures are steady to fractionally lower on Friday, with Sep expiring today and somewhat illiquid. The 8-14 day outlook shows above normal temps for most of the contiguous US into the last half of September. On Thursday, USDA added 85 mbu to the 18/19 ending stocks projection by cutting ethanol demand by 50 mbu and exports by 40 mbu. At 2.445 billion bushels, that is the largest since 1987/88 and the old Reserve days. We will get the final carryout number at the end of the month via the Quarterly Grain Stocks report. For new crop, they reduced projected ethanol demand by another 25 mbu.

SEP 19 Corn is at $3.58 1/2, up 4 cents,

DEC 19 Corn is at $3.67, down 1/4 cent,

MAR 20 Corn is at $3.79 3/4, unch,

MAY 20 Corn is at $3.88 1/2, down 1/2 cent

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybeans futures are up 1 to 2 cents in the front months at midday. Soybean meal is $2.10/ton higher, with soy oil 3 points lower. USDA reported a private export sale of 204,000 MT of soybeans to China for 2019/20 delivery. That was likely part of the 600,000 MT that was rumored on Thursday. The question for today is “Are they buying anything else?” Chinese officials stated that soybeans are on the list of US goods that are being exempt from additional tariffs that recently went into place. Analysts expect Monday’s NOPA report to show August crush of its members at 162.018 mbu, which would be nearly 2% larger than August 2018. On Thursday, USDA added back 20 mbu to the US crush projection for 2018/19, as well as adding another 45 mbu to the export number. WAOB also raised the cash average farm price by a dime to $8.50.

SEP 19 Soybeans are at $8.88 1/2, up 5 1/2 cents,

NOV 19 Soybeans are at $8.97 1/4, up 1 3/4 cents,

JAN 20 Soybeans are at $9.10 1/2, up 1 1/2 cents,

MAR 20 Soybeans are at $9.22 3/4, up 1 1/2 cents,

SEP 19 Soybean Meal is at $298.20, up $2.10,

SEP 19 Soybean Oil is at $28.99, down $0.03

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat futures are down 1 to 4 1/4 cents in most contracts on Friday. Credit that to pre-weekend profit taking. USDA made several changes to the production category of other main countries on Thursday. EU production was up 1 MMT to 151 MMT, with India up 1 to 102.19 MMT. They cut Australia by 2 MMT to 19 MMT, with Ukraine and Russia both down 0.5 MMT to 28.7 MMT and 72.5 MMT respectively. SovEcon added 0.5 MMT to their Russian projection, now at 75.9 MMT. Paris Milling futures are at their highest point since mid-August.

DEC 19 CBOT Wheat is at $4.82 1/4, down 1 1/2 cents,

DEC 19 KCBT Wheat is at $3.99 1/4, down 4 1/4 cents,

DEC 19 MGEX Wheat is at $5.04 3/4, down 2 1/2 cents

Source: Brugler Marketing & Management

Live cattle futures are mostly lower at midday, with Feb up a nickel. Feeder cattle futures are mixed, with nearby Sep down 42.5 cents. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was 71 cents lower on September 11 at $136.65. Wholesale boxed beef prices were higher on Friday morning. Choice boxes were up $1.17 at $221.14, with Select boxes $1.33 higher @ $199.93. USDA estimated week to date FI cattle slaughter @ 462,000. That is down 19,000 head from the same week a year ago. Light cash trade of $99 in TX and $159 dressed in NE was picked up on Thursday. A few bids of $100 live across the country and $159-160 in the beef are being reported on Friday.

OCT 19 Cattle are at $98.475, down $0.250,

DEC 19 Cattle are at $104.750, down $0.200,

FEB 20 Cattle are at $111.250, up $0.050,

SEP 19 Feeder Cattle are at $136.425, down $0.425

OCT 19 Feeder Cattle are at $134.575, up $0.075

NOV 19 Feeder Cattle are at $133.850, down $0.050

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean Hog futures are posting another round of strong gains, with Dec and Feb up the expanded limit. A Chinese official indicated US pork made the list of US goods that are exempt from additional tariffs of 10% that went onto effect on 9/1. The tariff is still a stiff 62%. The CME Lean Hog Index was down another $1.16 at $60.69 on September 11. The USDA pork carcass cutout value FOB plant was down $2.09 on Friday morning at $68.38. The picnic was the only primal reported higher, with the belly down $9.01. The national average base hog value was $72 cents lower at $45.59. Estimated FI hog slaughter was 1.943 head through Thursday, 193,000 head above the same week in 2018.

OCT 19 Hogs are at $65.675, up $2.500,

DEC 19 Hogs are at $68.700, up $4.500

FEB 20 Hogs are at $75.100, up $4.500

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton futures are 13 to 28 points higher in the front months, with thinly traded Oct down 55 points. China did give tariff exemptions from the second round of implementation to several US ag goods, though there was no word on if cotton made the list. On Thursday, USDA raised estimated world carryout for 18/19 by 1.3 to 83.75 MMT. Chinese imports were reduced by 0.5 MMT to 10 MMT, as Australian production was down 0.5 MMT to 1.4 MMT. The Cotlook A Index was unch on September 12 at 70.90 cents/lb. The weekly AWP is 52.28, up from 51.57 last week and effective through next Thursday.

OCT 19 Cotton is at 61.7, down 55 points,

DEC 19 Cotton is at 62.34, up 13 points

MAR 20 Cotton is at 62.84, up 26 points

MAY 20 Cotton is at 63.48, up 28 points

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

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